Flawed forestry data undermines effective policies

The volume of growing trees in Swedish forests has doubled over the last hundred years. There is a continuous increase in living biomass, and the state of Swedish forests as a sink for carbon has never been more important. The same goes for the use of wood-based products in displacing emission-intensive materials like concrete, plastic, and steel. The significance of timber and wood in the green transition of Europe is immense. And the potential is even bigger.

This might come as a surprise for many following the debate in recent years. We have constantly been alerted about a state of emergency, where alleged aggressive forestry practises supposedly have led to massive deforestation and forest degradation in Europe in general and in the Nordics in particular. But the claim that there has been an abrupt increase in harvesting is not correct.

As citizens we expect policies to be based on correct data, obtained through solid and scientifically reliable processes. This is not least important when it comes to environmental policies and our ability to tackle climate change. 

From the perspective of policy- and lawmakers, this is obviously of equal importance. The stakes are too high for allowing incorrect or incomplete data in policy making processes. European policymaking in the field of forestry bears witness to the damaging effect when this happens. It is essential that the incoming commission does not repeat the mistakes of the outgoing and instead bases its forest-related policies on solid science and proven statistics. 

Claims of accelerating deforestation and harvesting have been based on data obtained from satellites. Images were compared to measure changes in land use and the conclusion has been that there is a rapid depletion of important forest resources.

One article that had substantial impact was published in Nature in 2020. It pointed at almost 50 percent increase in wood harvesting within the EU. With Sweden and Finland alone contributing about half of the increase.

Policy papers issued by environmental organisations, think tanks and others have repeated the data as proven facts. Proposals for radical restrictions on forestry have been based on this research.

The data has even been used in policy documents authored by EU institutions, noting also that the original research was conducted by researchers at The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre. 

Closer scrutiny of the underlying studies has proved data and conclusions inaccurate. The article in Nature was thoroughly rebutted by leading experts in the field, and issues with the alarming results have been raised in other scientific articles as well. 

For us working in the forest industry this comes as no surprise. Reports of massive increase in harvesting did not make sense if one observed what was happening on the ground. Looking at official statistics, the transportation of timber or the deliveries to saw and pulp mills, a case for massive increase did not add up. 

Unfortunately, the impact of the corrections was dwarfed by the impact of the erroneous results.

The main technical reason for the misleading results is that the process for obtaining data was flawed. This is unfortunate particularly as there are dependable and since decades thoroughly evaluated official statistics on the state of Nordic forests. 

The ongoing Swedish National Forest Inventory, which constitutes Sweden's official statistics on forest resources, is conducted by the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. It confirms what has been well known for a long time: the total volume of Swedish forest has continuously grown, and the amount of carbon embedded in Swedish forests has increased. 

The Swedish National Forest Inventory has been operating since the early 1920’s, and for more than hundred years the system has been refined and developed. It is today considered to be world leading in the field.

It relies on on-site inventory, aerial laser scanning and robust methods developed by experts in the field of statistics. With continuous improvement of its methods, it provides the most accurate picture of the state of Sweden’s forests. The data is publicly available as part of Sweden’s official statistics. It is also frequently used by scientists. 

Experts on Swedish forest inventory and statistics – both from the official authority (The Swedish Forest Agency) and from academia – could immediately reveal the errors in the case presented in Nature. To limited avail.

Due to the introduction of sustainable forestry processes, including continuous investment to increase both the value and yield of Swedish forests, the volume has grown. The forest is today denser and more productive than before. This process is driven by engagement by more than 300.000 private and corporate owners of Swedish forest lands, ranging from properties of just a few hectares to major landowners such as SCA. National policy has also encouraged a long-term perspective on production and conservation and has allowed evolving practices and technologies to renew the industry. 

Without the modern forest industry, the importance of Nordic forests as a carbon sink would be much smaller and the opportunities for the EU to transition away from fossils reduced. Our industry is eager to continue to be part of the transformation of Europe and to continue to make substantial contributions to our efforts to fight climate change, promote growth and secure jobs in rural areas.

The incoming commission has an important task to get things right. 

This calls for more truly science-based policy. And for less policy-based science.