Austria’s far-right new government: history doesn’t repeat itself — but it rhymes

After roughly three months of talking, about a month and a half of serious negotiating and countless media reports of 'decisive days', the attempt to form a coalition between the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the liberal NEOS in order to bar the far-right from power failed. 

Talks between the three parties began after president Alexander van der Bellen broke with tradition by tasking the second-placed ÖVP to start coalition negotiations with the Social Democrats after the September elections in light of the parties’ unwillingness to form a government with the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) under leader Herbert Kickl.

Given the two mainstream parties’ slim majority in parliament, they agreed to take the liberal NEOS on board, a choice ideologically closer to the People’s Party, particularly when it comes to (socio-)economic policies. 

In the end, the country’s budget deficit became a central issue in the talks as the true state of the economy was only revealed by the ÖVP-led finance ministry after the election, raising doubts over the parties’ honesty and transparency while also further straining the negotiations.

As negotiators faced an uphill battle from the beginning, given conflicting demands, differing approaches to solving problems and diverging ideologies, the seemingly only thing uniting them being their joint willingness to prevent a 'chancellor Kickl' eventually proved to be too little.

When NEOS, the smallest party in the trio, rather unexpectedly quit coalition talks on Friday (3 January), the People’s Party followed suit on Saturday, breaking off negotiations set to continue with the Social Democrats alone.

Some insiders suggested that the economic wing of the ÖVP has never really been supportive of the proposed three-way coalition, particularly in light of their diverging views on how to fix the economy. 

Indeed, perhaps most puzzling about the collapse of the talks is that it wasn’t the typically contentious issues of immigration, asylum and integration where these ideologically diverging parties couldn’t find agreements, as they had allegedly made progress in these areas, according to the Christian Stocker, the ÖVP’s newly announced party chairman after chancellor Nehammer’s resignation.

Instead, they couldn’t agree on how to solve the economic crisis, left by years of overspending as a response to the pandemic and the energy crisis after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The question of how to save billions of Euros over the next years to comply with the EU deficit of three percent proved so decisive and finding an agreement impossible, ultimately impeding their ability to continue talks and prevent a far-right government under the chancellorship of Kickl. 

The failure to form a coalition led to the prompt resignation of chancellor Nehammer and his replacement by a leader who was suddenly less wary of the so-called 'Kickl-FPÖ', ultimately paved the way for a far-right government led by Kickl.

In fact, already on Sunday, the new ÖVP party chairman announced the party’s readiness to start coalition talks with the FPÖ under Kickl — despite previous assurances not to do so. 

Consequently, on Monday, president van der Bellen sanctioned the immediate start of coalition talks by Kickl with the ÖVP. The alternative was fresh elections, the earliest possible date for which would have been in April.

In any case, after the last few months of negotiations that culminated in a political debacle, mainstream parties’ chances to improve their polling and take the wind out of the FPÖ’s sails in a subsequent campaign seem rather utopian.

If anything, repeating the elections will only allow the far-right party to come out even stronger, as it is currently polling at around 35 percent, up six percent since last September’s election.

Echoes of history

Overall, current developments in Austria are reminiscent of the early 2000s when, after months of negotiations, the third-placed ÖVP quit coalition talks with the back-then leading SPÖ, forming a government with the second-placed far-right after all that led to short-lived dismay among EU leaders.

25 years after the first ÖVP-FPÖ coalition came to being and a little over five years since the breakdown of the last ÖVP-FPÖ government, history is not quite repeating itself, but it rhymes: the major difference today being that the far-right, after being normalised and mainstreamed for decades, would for the first time, take the lead in a coalition government.

Aside from even further legitimising them, it also gives them the upper hand to implement policies that are largely inspired by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. 

Mainstream parties not only had a unique opportunity but also a fundamental responsibility to showcase that they are able to work together, offer credible solutions to the everyday worries of the people, and that keeping the far-right out of power is a viable and reasonable approach for the country’s well-being.

Yet, what remains for onlookers is that months have been wasted in talks that culminated in the failure of the three negotiating parties to prevent a far-right government, providing fertile ground for increased feelings of justified distrust in the competencies of the political establishment.

Moreover, it only further strengthened the far-right, even vindicated its leader Herbert Kickl — who reacted to the news by saying that the “Kickl-prevention strategy” failed — and thus ultimately equips the far-right with leverage and credibility by allowing it to present itself as the only stable political force in the country. 

In the end, mainstream parties once again paved the way for the far-right to power. As such, the answer to the question of my op-ed in September (“Will the centre-right enable the far-right in Austria at September's election?”) seems to be “Yes”.