Amid far-right noise, pro-European centre holds – albeit weakened

Despite concerns about the surge of the far-right in Europe, the pro-European parties have managed to hold a majority in the next European Parliament — making EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s own re-election more likely.

The European People’s Party (EPP) came top in the four-day European elections, winning 185 of the 720 seats in the European Parliament — an increase of nine MEPs, compared to 2019.

The Socialists and Democrats (S&D) came second, losing a few seats but securing 137 MEPs in the next hemicycle. Big gains took place in France, paired with modest improvements in Italy and Romania. Losses took place in Poland and Germany, while they maintained their support in socialist-led Spain.

Despite massive losses in countries like France, where president Emmanuel Macron responded to the results on Sunday night by calling for snap parliamentary elections, the liberals of Renew Europe are still the third-biggest political force. However, they saw their number of MEPs drop from 102 to 80.

As a result, the mainstream centrist-democratic majority is projected to have 402 MEPs, representing almost 56 percent of the seats. Von der Leyen, seeking a second term at the helm of the European Commission, would need 361 votes to get the parliament’s green light.

Both the S&D and the Greens immediately presented themselves as reliable partners for this potential pro-democratic coalition. But whereas von der Leyen announced her intention to “build a platform” with socialists and liberals, she notably did not respond to the invitation by the Greens.

Notably, the Greens suffered the biggest losses of the night, with especially the French and German delegations taking strong hits. Better results in Nordic and Baltic countries were insufficient to compensate for their losses — prompting them to pitch themselves as a potential partner in the pro-democratic coalition.

“Any coalition we’ll be part of will be based on pro-democracy and pro-Europe. And that's very clear. That's without Identity and Democracy (ID) and European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR),” Green lead candidate Bas Eickhout told EUobserver.

While far-right and national conservatives were expected to get big wins, they only saw their number of seats slightly increasing. ECR saw an increase in the number of MEPs from 69 to 73 while far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) won nine seats.

Nonetheless, the particularly strong result for France’s National Rally was hailed by its leader Jordan Bardella, as an “unprecedented defeat for the powers-that-be”, that would mark “the first day of the post-Macron era”.

“I cannot act as if nothing had happened,” Macron said, as he announced that he was dissolving the French National Assembly and calling for elections on 30 June and 7 July.

Notably, those parties which currently fall under ‘non-attached’ or ‘others’ will play a key role in reshuffling parties and shaping the next legislative term. These include Viktor Orbán's Fidesz (which win 10 MEPs), Alternative for Germany (15 seats), Italy’s Five Star Movement (with nine MEPs) and Sarah Wagenknecht’s new party, which split from Die Linke in Germany (six MEPs).

"EU politics appears not only more fragmented, but also less intelligible than ever before," said Alberto Alemanno, professor of EU Law at HEC Paris and College of Europe, on X, reacting to the election results.

Turnout relatively low

Overall, turnout in the Thursday-Sunday elections decreased slightly compared to 2019, estimated to be 48.8 percent by Europe Elects, 0.3 percent lower than last time.

Gains in Germany, the Netherlands and Romania appear to have been offset by falls in participation in Spain, Poland and Italy.

Luxembourg, which has compulsory voting, topped the list with 82 percent, followed by Malta at 72 percent and Germany at 66, with Belgium, which has compulsory voting as well, still to publish figures.

A negative outlier was Lithuania, where turnout was a staggering 25 percent lower than in 2019, dropping to a paltry 28.4 percent. Croatia’s 21 percent was the lowest of the EU.

This article has been updated