Eggs won’t win the EU a trade war against the US

As Washington slaps new 20 percent tariffs on European goods across the board, the idea of retaliating with agricultural exports might seem tempting.

Eggs, surprisingly, entered the picture earlier this year, when the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) approached several EU countries about emergency egg imports to ease a domestic supply crisis.

Could Europe use the US egg shortage as leverage in Donald Trump’s newly-launched trade war?

“We have been in the past trying to get market access to export table eggs for consumption [but] it's almost impossible because the requirements are very difficult to meet and very costful”, notes Stig Munck Larsen, chief consultant at the Danish Agriculture and Food Council.

US egg woes

In recent weeks, rising egg prices have brought back scenes of empty shelves in several US cities, reminiscent of the pandemic era, when fears of food shortages led to panic buying.

Wholesale egg prices began climbing sharply in late December, reaching over $8 [€7.30] per dozen by February — double the price from the same time last year.

The surge was driven by a widespread outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), which led to the death or preventive culling of millions of laying hens, causing a sharp drop in egg production and triggering a supply and price crisis.

In March, however, egg prices have sharply declined, driven by falling demand in response to high prices and a partial recovery in supply as avian flu outbreaks eased.

Weekly average prices of a dozen of white large eggs in wholesale markets

The USDA responded to the egg crisis with a $1bn plan to combat avian flu, which included exploring temporary import options to ease supply shortages.

The USDA first secured 15,000 tonnes of eggs from Turkey, followed by import commitments from South Korea. 

While wholesale egg prices have recently declined sharply, the USDA has raised its overall 2025 price forecast: from a projected 41.1 percent increase in February to 57.6 percent in March.

The US egg hunt also reached EU doorsteps, as the USDA contacted several EU member states, including Denmark, to inquire about potential imports.

Although no follow-up occurred after initial outreach, Denmark and other EU producers are unlikely to meet US demand due to sanitary barriers and limited production capacity, according to Munck Larsen.

Can Europe help ease the US egg prices crisis?

Before egg exports can be considered, Europe would need surplus supply — which right now is falling behind demand.

“Very few countries have a stock to sell,” admits Munck Larsen, “if everybody starts to supply the US, prices [in Europe] will go up,” he adds.

Meeting that demand could also come at a cost to existing trade relationships. Failing to fulfil regular customers’ needs would be bad business, especially since any deal with the US would likely be temporary.

“If you go into the US market, it would only be for a short time, maybe three, six, or nine months,” Munck Larsen explains.

Washed or unwashed?

Even if surplus eggs became available, sanitary regulations would be a major obstacle. “In Europe you are not allowed to wash the eggs, [but] in the US you have to wash them.” 

In the EU, egg washing is prohibited in all countries except Sweden (where consumer preference favours washed eggs). This process could pose “a risk of substances penetrating inside the egg,” Munck Larsen points out, explaining why the regulation was established. In contrast, the US requires eggs to be both washed and refrigerated throughout the supply chain until consumption.

Beyond that, Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) standards add another layer of complexity.

These regulations make egg trade with the US “almost impossible,” Munck Larsen concludes.

Meanwhile, the EU has seen a recent rise in table egg prices, with an overall increase of 18.5 percent since the first week of 2025. Major producing countries — including France, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, and Poland — have experienced similar price rises since the start of the year.

How severe is the impact of avian influenza in EU?

Avian influenza has inflicted significant losses on the poultry industry over the past two years, with the US market particularly hard hit. While the disease itself can cause bird deaths, the impact is worsened by containment measures: once an outbreak is detected on a farm, all birds on the premises must be culled, regardless of infection status, sometimes multiplying the overall losses.

The US egg-laying industry is dominated by megafarms, where outbreaks of HPAI can be devastating.

According to the latest European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) report, between September and December 2024, several farms with more than 100,000 chickens — including two with over two million birds — were forced to cull their flocks to prevent the spread of the virus. 

The EU poultry industry may be better prepared for avian flu, as it has “stronger rules when it comes to biosecurity” and is “less exposed due to our industry structure,” as Munck Larsen notes, referring to a smaller concentration of laying hens per farm.

Between July and December 2024, the US reported losses of 33.42 million birds, while EU member states recorded 7.69 million, according to the World Animal Health Information System (WAHIS), which monitors animal diseases globally.

As of 26 March, just halfway through the current semester, the HPAI death toll in both the EU and the US has already reached levels comparable to the previous full semester.

Avian influenza concerns now extend beyond poultry and wild birds.

“We are equally concerned about avian influenza spreading into other species like cows, [...] we have seen the virus in dairy products, in milk,” Munck Larsen adds. The UK recently reported the first-ever recorded case in a sheep.

Europe needs to keep its eggs in check

Despite USDA forecasts that egg prices in the US are still expected to rise, Europe can hardly weaponise its eggs to gain leverage in ongoing trade tensions.

“The global situation in egg is that there's no balance actually. There's a lot of demand and the supply is lacking,” says Munck Larsen.

Eurostat and USDA data reflect only wholesale egg prices, but the Spanish consumer association FACUA has raised alarm over rapidly rising retail prices in recent weeks, with some egg categories increasing by up to 25 percent in major grocery chains.

The recent rise in wholesale prices, combined with growing avian flu outbreaks, should serve as a warning for the EU to prioritise securing its own egg supply and price stability — rather than stretching production to ease US table egg prices.

Moreover, these imports would now be subject to Trump's 20-percent tariff — undermining the very purpose of such a trade deal.